According to DataQuick, the home sales tracking company, home pricing in Orange County is moving in some odd directions!

In all of Orange County in the time ending August 27th the number of homes sold has decreased by almost 16%!

At the same time, the pricing in Orange County has remained relatively stable, and in fact has increased 3.4% to date.

What does this mean?  Well, in one regard, its anyone’s guess - when the sales decline, this usually is a leading indicator for price reductions, while a higher sales price indicates that the market is coming off of a stronger level. 

Well, as the summer comes closing in, we continue tracking the real estate market and statistics in the city of Laguna Niguel.  Generally, we’ve been optimistic about the market place and about inventory over the summer, and honestly we still are!  (The picture looks different…)

At this point, inventory is on the rise - this is dangerous for Sellers, since increasing inventory brings increasing competition in attracting buyers, and this means that Sellers are truly in a beauty contest and a price war! 

The inventory this week is very precise - there are 417 Active Listings in Laguna Niguel.  Of those active listings, there are 296 Regular Sales, and 121 Short Sales. 

There are 200 In Escrow listings, of which only 74 are Regular Sales.  There are 126 Short Sales in Escrow. 

The monthly inventory (the number of months to sell all active listings if no other homes were listed), therefore, is 296/74 = 4 MONTHS OF INVENTORY exactly.

The inventory has therefore increased by approximately 18% - this makes for a much softer market as the number of motivated sellers increases.  This is to be expected since the market has increased, allowing a number of sellers to sell without taking a loss, which has opened the door for more listings.

As a buyer, the time is ripening - keep watching for good deals!

Well, this weekend was a huge success for the Rancho Niguel Garage Sale!!  We had over 80 participants, and a TON of traffic!  At one point my cul de sac was a parking lot of interested lookers - and it seemed as though every neighborhood was simlar!  If you had an experience you’d like to share, please comment below.

Ultimately, this great time could have never happened without all the participants, and so we wish all of you a hearty THANK YOU!

Please keep your eyes open for the sale next year - we learned a lot and are hoping to make it even BIGGER AND BETTER next year!!  ‘Same bat time, same bat channel….’.

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Just a brief reminder:

If you or someone you know is looking for a home with a panoramic ocean view in a great location in Laguna Beach, we have a spectacular listing down that way, and the views are unreal - panoramic from north coast all the way down past south Laguna, plus a canyon view - and all of this space and without any steps, making this home a super unique opportunity.

Plus the 2700 square feet of living space and the shocking price tag of 1,330,000 makes this the best buy in Laguna Beach!  Call for a showing!!

FINDING A BALANCE???????

After a month of ups and downs in the Real Estate Market inventory here in Laguna Niguel, it seems that we may be finding a balance closing out the summer. 

That balance isn’t where most home owners in Laguna Niguel would like it to be, but it is very clear at this point that the market inventory is stable.  We’ve had a change since the July numbers but the change is almost imperceptible - we had thought that the numbers would shift in a negative way as the summer progressed based on the number of distressed properties in Laguna Niguel (597 in some sort of distress as of 7/30).  That shift has not taken place, and so the numbers have remained quite stable!

So…on to the numbers!!  As of today in Laguna Niguel there are 389 ACTIVE PROPERTIES, of which 121 are short sales. 

There are 215 IN ESCROW, of which 131 are short sales, leaving 84 regular sales in escrow.  Taking the regular actives (278) and dividing by the regulars in escrow (84), we find that we have approximately 3.4 months of inventory on the market at this time.  This translates into a moderately seller-favored market, slouching toward balance. 

What does this mean for you?  If you are a buyer in Laguna Niguel, there are a number of homes for sale, and you can truly have some great inventory to look at.  As a seller, just be CERTAIN to do some really good research on the true value of your home before your price it - overpriced homes in a balanced market just won’t move!

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The United States federal government has just released a new website intended to help homeowners facing financial trouble.  The goal of the website is to facilitate the process of loan modifications and refinances for home owners who are having trouble with getting a short sale or loan modification completed.  The website is quite informative, and contains a calculator which should give you a projected monthly payment cap, should you qualify for a modification, and a way to track and expedite a short sale. 

Feel free to check it out here, and let us know your thoughts!

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IT’S THAT TIME OF

YEAR AGAIN!!

The JonRon Team is sponsoring the community-wide garage sale for all of Rancho Niguel this year! 

The official day for the sale is AUGUST 21st

We’ll provide the advertising, signs, and some treats that morning - all you have to do is open the garage and make some dough with your old stuff! 

If you’d like to participate, you can comment on this blog with your address and name, or you can email us at sale@JonRonTeam.com

OFF WE GO!!!

Well, as the summer moves on, we are reminded again that the real estate market is cyclical and varied.  The market statistics follow, as well as an analysis of what this means for you for the rest of the summer and ‘fall’.

As of today, there are 395 ACTIVE listings in Laguna Niguel, ranging in price from 180K to well over 6 Million.  Of those homes, 112 are SHORT SALES leaving 283 regular sales. 

Further, there are 209 IN ESCROW in Laguna Niguel, and of that number, 130 are SHORT SALES, leaving 79 regular sales in escrow.

So what does this information mean?  Well, you’ll notice that the ratio of active to in escrow short sales is much greater - 79 to 395 regular sales in escrow versus 130 to 112 short sales in escrow.  This would indicate that the properties in escrow are dwindling as the market slows into the summer months.  The numbers of properties that are entering escrow are slowing, and the pricing of regular sales is being rejected by the wider marketplace.  This would indicate that the real estate market in our area is entering the expected seasonal summer doldrums. 

What does this mean for the longer term?  Well, honestly, that’s anyone’s guess.  With the market still selling, and low interest rates and some well-priced homes, the time may still be right to jump on a sale and unload that old rental property, etc..  Further, in a market climate like this, moving up is fantastic!  The percentage changes make the gains very tempting. 

For market questions and statistics, email us anytime at Stats@JonRonRealEstate.com.

Here’s what the Federal Reserve Board said about the Economy here in the Wild Wild West:

“Real Estate and Construction
Demand for housing in the District appeared to deteriorate somewhat from the previous period, while demand for commercial real estate was largely unchanged at very low levels. The pace of home sales remained mixed across areas but appeared to decline on net, even as home prices edged up further in some parts of the District. Several contacts noted again that limited availability of nonconforming “jumbo” loans is holding down sales of higher-priced homes in some areas. Conditions in commercial real estate markets remained depressed, as vacancy rates for office and industrial space stayed at very elevated levels in many parts of the District. One California contact noted that although only a few large commercial properties have sold in recent months, the prices received were surprisingly high.”

If you’d like more information about this or any other Market Statistics, especially Laguna Niguel specific, let us know!

Mortgage lenders are concerned with your ability to repay the mortgage. To decide if you qualify for a loan on a new home, they will consider your credit history, your monthly gross income and how much cash you will be able to accumulate, or have accumulated, for a down payment. So how much house can you afford? To know that, you need to understand a concept called “debt-to-income ratios.”

Debt-to-income ratios

The basic types of debt to income ratios are known as front end and back end ratios.  The front-end ratio is the amount of house debt versus the total gross income.  The back-end ratio is the total debt management with house and all other debt versus monthly gross income.

Front-end ratio: The housing expense, or front-end, ratio shows how much of your gross (pretax) monthly income would go toward the mortgage payment. As a general guideline, your monthly mortgage payment, including principal, interest, real estate taxes and homeowners insurance, should not exceed 28 percent of your gross monthly income. To calculate your housing expense ratio, multiply your annual salary by 0.28, then divide by 12 (months). The answer is your maximum housing expense ratio.

Front-end ratio

Maximum housing expense ratio = annual salary x 0.28 / 12 (months)

Back-end ratio: The total debt-to-income, or back-end, ratio, shows how much of your gross income would go toward all of your debt obligations, including mortgage, car loans, child support and alimony, credit card bills, student loans and condominium fees. In general, your total monthly debt obligation should not exceed 36 percent of your gross income. To calculate your debt-to-income ratio, multiply your annual salary by 0.36, then divide by 12 (months). The answer is your maximum allowable debt-to-income ratio.

Back-end ratio

Maximum allowable debt-to-income ratio = annual salary x 0.36 / 12 (months)

Example

Take a homebuyer who makes $80,000 a year. The maximum amount for monthly mortgage-related payments at 28 percent of gross income is $1866. ($80,000 times 0.28 equals $22,400, and $22,400 divided by 12 months equals $1866.66.)